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Good morning from the UK. ​ **Virus statistics** ​ |Region|Today|Yesterday|% Change| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Global|113,672|101,923|\+11.5%| |China|80,924|80,565|\+0.4%| |Italy|9,172|7,375|\+24.4%| |South Korea|7,513|7,382|\+1.8%| |Iran|7,161|6,566|\+9.1%| |France|1,412|1,116|\+26.5%| |Germany|1,139|902|\+26.3%| |USA|755|547|\+38.0%| |Spain|1,024|589|\+73.9%| |Japan|514|488|\+5.3%| |Switzerland|332|332|No change| |UK|323|277|\+16.6%| |Netherlands|321|265|\+21.1%| ​ Countries with under 250 identified infections not listed. Total countries infected worldwide = 110, an increase from yesterday of 6. Source: The WHO dashboard ([Link](, except for USA where I'm using the John Hopkins University dashboard ([Link]( Given Italy had 647 cases only 11 days ago and now has over 1,000% that number ( [source](, it's reasonable to expect quarantines to one degree or another to come into place in a week or two for any country currently over 250. Reminder, these are identified case counts and medical experts are reporting this virus has a long incubation period with people being infections despite displaying no symptoms; the true infection figures are likely to be much higher. ​ **Virus reaction** ​ **Italy quarantines itself -** As many will already know, the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered the shutdown of the whole of Italy (Guardian: [Link]( late yesterday (Monday). “There is no more time. I will take responsibility for these measures. Our future is in our hands,” he told reporters. In Italy under the decree, all public events will be banned, cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs closed, and funerals, weddings and sporting events cancelled – including Serie A matches (the highest football/soccer league in the country). All schools and universities will remain closed until 3 April. Under the new decree, people will only be able to travel between cities for emergency reasons and can face fines and up to three months in jail for breaking quarantine rules. Checkpoints on motorways, toll booths, train stations and airports are expected to be introduced on Tuesday. Those who have to leave their region or their cities out of serious necessity can do so only if they have self-certification stating that they must cross the borders for compelling business reasons, health reasons, or because they have to return home. The Guardian points out in its live blog ([Link]( that the quarantine measures do appear to be working; infection rates are dropping in the eleven towns that were already quarantined more than two weeks ago. (*Personal note: I checked FedEx, DHL and UPS service alerts for Italy; FedEx and DHL still aren't delivering to the 11 quarantined towns but say nothing for the rest of Italy, UPS says it's operating in Italy as norma*l). ​ **Social media thoughts on Italy's battle with the virus -** two threads have gone viral in the past 24 hours (neither can be corroborated but they seem reasonably believable to me). The first from an epidemiologist repeats the thoughts of a doctor working in a badly affected Italian hospital - the ER is becoming overwhelmed, everyone is being admitted for the same reason, all beds are full and staff are badly fatigued. You can read it [here](, she provided a follow up link at the bottom. The other is reporting on what his friend in Italy's medical system says and it's much the same thing - there is not enough equipment to meet the surge in demand, staff are becoming overwhelmed and those over 65 are not even being assessed and nobody is available to help them if they arrest ([that link is here]( - I assume they mean they are being forced to let the patient die because they are overwhelmed with other patients who are better placed to survive. ​ **Is this a pandemic or not -** Vox has written an interesting article on why the WHO still hasn't called it a Pandemic despite senior politicians in several countries doing just that. The reason - it's political ([link]( ​ **Family of Missouri's first coronavirus patient broke self-quarantine, attended school dance -** Fox News [reports]( that the father of the first patient disobeyed self-quarantine rules and went to a school dance with his other daughter. Villa Duchesne and Oak Hill School will close on Monday; Villa is an all-girls school that serves grades seven through 12, while Oak Hill is a coed school that teaches preschool through grade six. ​ **UAE bans all cruise ship visits until further notice -** Splash247 reports that the Federal Transport Authority of the United Arab Emirates has decided to suspend all cruise operations at the country’s ports as part of precautionary measures to prevent the spreading of coronavirus. Ferry services to Iran were already suspended last month. ​ **Other virus reactions in brief -** Sources Guardian live blog (linked above) and Al-Jazeera live blog ([link]( \- The president of the European parliament announced he will self isolate for the next two weeks and work from home after visiting Italy over last weekend \- Poland has cancelled all mass public gatherings \- Pope Francis has urged priests to have the courage to go out and visit the sick and elderly \- Greek MPs are warning the health system on the island of Lesbos (which is host to 27,000 migrants and refugees is becoming overwhelmed and needs urgent help) \- Moldova is banning entrants via air from any country recording infections. Separately, Morocco has cancelled all flights to Italy as has the major European airline Norwegian airlines. Australian airline Qantas has grounded eight of its 10 A380 planes and is rerouting flights as it grapples with a sharp drop in demand; it's suspending 25% of its flights worldwide. \- The French culture minister has contracted the virus and is self isolating \- The UK's deputy chief medial officer has being doing the media tour this morning; she told Sky News that many thousands will become infected in the UK with mortality rates initially rising before falling again \- The Grand Princess cruise ship has finally docked in San Francisco with 21 cases onboard. Canada and the UK have said they will fly their citizens home; US citizens will be taken to military bases for 2 weeks quarantine. \- For the 3rd day in a row no local transmissions of the virus have been recorded in China outside of Hubei province \- China's President Xi has visited Wuhan for the first time since the outbreak started in a move widely seen as authorities feeling that the tide is turning in the fight against the virus. \- In Singapore non residents will now have to pay for healthcare if they are admitted to hospital with the Coronavirus (previously it was free).   The government added that testing of foreign visitors will remain free.  \- The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome and Mastercard pledged $125m to support the development of treatments for the coronavirus. \- Mongolia has quarantined all of its major cities after it discovered its first case. \- US forces in South Korea and Japan have been confined to their bases (source:, [link]( ​ **Economics** ​ **What are people panic buying -** reports has the answer ([link](, at least for Canadian consumers. Apart from the obvious sanitisers and masks, other products include cough and herbal remedies, baby products, dried food and deodorant with demand for oat milk nearly having tripled. ​ **Virus Makes Lobsters So Cheap That Sellers Face a Fatal Blow -** Supplychainbrain reports ([link]( that U.S. lobster prices have plummeted to the lowest in at least four years after the spread of the virus halted charter flights to Asia at a time when sales usually boom for Chinese New Year celebrations. The fallout has left thousands of pounds of unsold lobster flooding North American markets and squeezing U.S. businesses that were already hurting from lost sales due to China’s tariffs from its trade war with Washington. “This is like a fatal blow,” said Stephanie Nadeau, owner of Arundel, Maine-based The Lobster Co., which saw orders to Hong Kong shrivel from about 1,000 boxes a week to a total of 120 boxes -- each carrying 33 pounds -- since late January. “I’m about to lay off most of my employees.” The article goes on to discuss similar impacts hitting Canada, Australia and New Zealand lobster fisheries. ​ **Supply chain** ​ **COVID-19 swallows $400 million revenue of African airlines -** says ([link]( the major African airlines have to date suffered $400m USD of revenue losses due to a collapse in demand. Several African airlines such as South African Airways, Royal Air Maroc, Air Tanzania, Air Mauritius, EgyptAir, RwandAir and Kenya Airways have suspended flights to and from China. Meanwhile, Ethiopian Airlines is still operating flights to and from five cities in China. Losses are expected to rise further. ​ **Carriers eye empty passenger services to keep intra-Asia air cargo moving -** The Loadstar says that Cathay Pacific (the major HK based airline) is thinking of using some passenger aircraft for cargo only flights to keep cargo moving around Asia. “Although we expect our passenger belly cargo operations to be impacted, we are evaluating how to continue serving our cargo customers to and from Japan,” Cathay said. “This includes the retention of certain passenger services for cargo carriage only.” The article goes on to quote a CEO of a large logistics firm: “We suggest customers consider ocean freight, rail freight, sea-air freight and even road freight, such as China-ASEAN cross-border trucks to diversify the risk. It is anticipated that surging demand of rail freight will also drive rate increases. In the meantime, more and more charter flight services will be launched in the market to soften demand”. ​ **U.S. Exempts Face Masks, Medical Products From China Tariffs -** reports that the US administration has lifted tariffs on face masks and medical products. One manufacturer is quoted as saying that the global production of the product is significantly limited to China, and changing to U.S. or third-country manufacturers “is not practical or competitive." "Additional duties on such products would cause major financial harm and increase costs to healthcare providers and their customers in the United States,” the company added. ​ **iPhone 11 shortages in the US -** the German tech website is reporting ([link](, in German) that in parts of the USA stocks of iPhone 11 models have run out and there is no sign of a resupply. It notes that the manufacturer FoxConn is struggling with its factories at an estimated 50% operational capacity. For the time being, availability in Germany remains good. ​ **Israel: Courtesy of the Coronavirus, That Order From Amazon Could Take a Month to Reach Your Front Door -** the major newspaper Haaretz has warned that if flights inbound from the US stop, it may take up to a month for Amazon orders to arrive - already AliExpress orders have plummeted in Israel as suppliers have struggled to ship out of Israel. Some e-commerce firms are countering by using connecting flights if direct ones have been cancelled. “In the worst case, and we’re closed to the U.S., they’ll be a real pogrom for the delivery sector. It means that deliveries won’t go out at all and there will be real shortages of merchandise,” one courier manager said. “The logistics universe comprises of lots of intermediate stops, The expectation now is that every link will be affected. If people are in lockdown, it means warehouse workers, delivery people and customs inspectors – everyone who comes into contact with the package, and that’s scores of hands until it reaches the customer.” He said he expected that to happen in weeks, maybe days, as the coronavirus, spreads to countries that are relevant to the supply chain that serve Israel such as Britain, Germany and the U.S. ​ **Major UK supermarket chains now rationing sales for some products due to heavy demand -** the BBC [reports]( that Tesco and some other supermarket chains are now rationing sales of certain products both online and in store including antibacterial gels, wipes and sprays, dry pasta, UHT milk and some tinned vegetables. According to a survey from Retail Economics, as many as one in 10 UK consumers is stockpiling, based on a sample of 2,000 shoppers. ​ **Good news section** ​ Major UK automotive company Jaguar Land Rover says its supply chain is holding up - having hit the headlines a few weeks ago for flying in suitcases of key fobs, reports that the automotive firm is saying its supply chain is holding up with most of its suppliers back online. JLR said it has visibility of availability of most parts out two weeks or more and had managed to avoid potential parts shortages by working closely with its suppliers and with some increased use of air freight. In the event of specific parts shortages, it warned, JLR would ordinarily be able to still build cars and retrofit missing parts when available, however, it said it could not rule out the risk that a shortage of a critical component could impact production at some point. EDIT: Table formatting EDIT 2: Lesbos isn't in Italy